Don't Plan Your Career, Lay Out Scenarios Instead

I won't bury the lede on this one; don't plan your career, a better approach is to develop a few scenarios of where you believe your industry is going and acquire the knowledge and skills that will be required to thrive in these scenarios. I'll explain how to do this.

I wrote a few articles in 2015 (OK, a lot) and the ones that got the most views/responses were focused on the future of an industry or company. Unsurprisingly, I got questioned on my ability to predict the future, people disagreed in a few cases. That's fine. My response was the same every time; I'm not actually predicting the future, I'm just laying out strategic scenarios. Second most recurring question was why I felt comfortable sharing my views on where the future lies for industries that I know little about? My response; it's easy when you apply systems thinking because one should be wary of folk who predict the future with certainty.

It’s all about systems thinking. Looking at the industry through the lens of some immutable systems truths and not placing too much weight on the short term beyond where we are in market cycles. It’s the crux of my ebook as I apply it to two industries (education and energy). 

Understanding the fundamental drivers and where your industry is going will enable you acquire the skills you need to thrive in your industry whatever the outcome of your  situation with your current company or with the company itself. It's a simple process

  1. Read and gather information on the game changing technologies within and outside your industry.
  2. Apply some Systems Thinking to the information you've gathered (I give some examples below)
  3. Lay out 2-3 scenarios for where things might go
  4. Research to gain better understanding of what skills you need to acquire  to play a leadership role in the scenarios you've laid out (#SkillsGap)
  5. Go about acquiring those skills.
  6. Stay learning

Systems Thinking Concepts to Apply for Scenario building

In the Fifth Discipline, Peter Senge advocates for the value of learning organizations. The same learning mentality applies in your acquisition of knowledge about technological advancements and the skills that will be required. Some things will always hold true, regardless of whether some of the technological advances come to be, because some systems concepts (I borrow from Donella Meadows here) will always be true. Here a few that you can use to develop your scenarios

  • Honor, respect and distribute information: the business model for some industries (e.g. insurance or credit ratings) is based on lack of transparency and hiding information from customers. Such industries, and companies that are thriving in such industries, can only do so for so long because information will always seek a way 'out'. For example the healthcare industry will end up with our individual health records belonging to us and not the insurance companies or the healthcare systems. Develop scenarios that respect this systems concept.
  • Listen to the wisdom of the systems: similar to the concept above, analog industries to yours that are further along in the system cycle will provide you a sense for possible scenarios in your industry. For example; the utility industry is moving from a centralized to a distributed generation and supply structure, similar to what happened to the telecommunications industry about 15 years ago. Listen to the systems. This concept also suggests that cross industry expertise is going to be critical in any scenario you come up with as competition will come not just from within your industry but from outsiders as well. An example is Myfitnesspal (acquired by UnderArmour) which has data on the food habits of ~80M users, expect this company to compete with insurance or health care data companies in the not so distant future . The future of companies and careers will be ruled by those who combine skills from several areas of expertise and augment it with technology to achieve their goals. Develop scenarios that recognize this.
  • Expand the time horizons: In 2013 there was a lot of talk about drones. In 2014 there was a lot of talk about drones. In 2015 there was a lot of talk about drones. In 2016.. you guessed it, there will be a lot of talk about drones. This is not because people don’t have things to talk about, it’s because until a technology becomes ubiquitous we continue to be fascinated by the possibilities. When developing scenarios, extend your time horizons to include a timeframe when the fascinating technologies of today become regular parts of our lives and work. 

Using some of these concepts you will be able to futurecast, develop scenarios and define what you need to learn to cover your #SkillsGaps and it also helps you develop a learning mentality (due to the amount of research you will have to do).  Even if none of your scenarios come to be you would have learned a lot and gained skills. You’ll need it to thrive regardless of the changes that happen around you…

Get my ebook on Systems Thinking and Scenarios here or for the interactive version check out Amazon.